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How do you explain that Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still free agents?


The inevitable has reared its ugly head.  Two and a half weeks into the season, several teams are already starting to understand their weaknesses.  In New York, the Mets are relying on Jason Vargas and that strategy is failing miserably.  In Washington, the Nationals can barely hold a lead and are wasting quality start after quality start.  The calls, in these respective cities, grow louder and louder to sign able-and-willing help that's sitting on the sidelines.  These aren't the only teams with fans clamoring for their front office to make a move.  In ordinary times, there may be a decent free agent or two that is just sitting at home, but currently, there are two high-quality pitchers just waiting to be signed.  Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel -- a former Cy Young winner and one of the best relievers in the game.   

The reports are all over the place, with some outlets saying that "there's no explanation" for why we're in the situation we're in.  

The explanation is quite simple, actually.  

Keuchel and Kimbrel want more money than the market will give them.  Now, some will argue that this is simply owners and franchises exerting their power over free agents.  But what we witnessed this past off-season is that teams are willing to spend a significant amount of money if they think the investment is worth it.  Machado, Arenado, Harper, and Trout all signed significant contracts, two of which broke existing records.  The money is available.

For Keuchel and Kimbrel, teams are unwilling to pay the price tag associated with getting these players.  It's that simple.  

But's unknown is whether there is a point of no return where Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel don't get signed this season and just sit on their couch for the rest of the year.  Is that even possible?

To some degree, it might be.  In recent history, we've seen players like Roger Clemens get signed halfway through the year to help give a team a big push to the playoffs.  But Roger Clemens is a little different, he's a proven Hall of Fame pitcher.  These two, while having solid and respectable careers, are not.  Pitching in Major League Baseball may be one of the most difficult "professions" in sports.  It's not like riding a bike; it's not something that you just pick up from one day to the next.  The workload, the velocity, the accuracy -- all things that don't just happen overnight.
  
And the problem is that getting Keuchel and Kimbrel on a team needs to happen sooner than later, or else the rustiness may be too much to overcome.  There is no replacement for major league facilities and coaching.  And so it does seem possible that there is a point of no return here.  Would you rather sign Keuchel or Kimbrel when they haven't faced live batting since last season or would you rather take a chance on someone in your farm system that has been facing live batting and is tethered to you on a long-term basis?  Or better yet, would you try and trade for someone that's currently pitching for a different ball club?  This rumor -- that the Mets and Phillies are interested in Mike Minor, confirm where the clubs value what they need.  Minor appears to be owed $18.5 million between this year and next, whereas Keuchel, for example, wants about that much for one year.  You do the math.

The answer, as it appears to us today, isn't so difficult -- teams are betting on themselves at the moment and neither of these two pitchers.

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