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Fantasy Baseball: A revised approach to Fernando Tatis in dynasty contexts

 

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the case for going all in on Fernando Tatis.  I wrote that article before it was announced that he was scheduled to have shoulder surgery.  Since then, we have the even more information that pushes us, or should push us, in a direction to being all-in on Fernando Tatis.  However, before we begin, a caveat.

The old paradigm is changing.  

Fernando Tatis is an excellent all-around player and arguably, his value has been inflated by both his ability to contribute to power counting stats, but also stolen base numbers.  In the past, a significant premium was placed on a player like that, but what remains to be seen is whether we will continue to place such a premium on players that fit within the Tatis mold.  Why?

Well, changes are coming.  While we are still in the process of understanding some rule changes for 2023, we do know two things:  significant rules have been changed and those changes in the minor leagues have given us some important data.  So, first, what are those changes?  

For starters, the shift, as we know it now, is being modified.  However, I don't have a good feel yet for how the shift-ban will affect stolen base numbers.  We do know one rule, however, that will prove to be impactful -- the base sizes will increase from 15 inches square to 18 inches square.  The end result is a roughly 4.5 inch reduction in the distance between first and second base.  

I would have expected a more significant increase in stolen base numbers, but so far, I am not sure we've seen the kind of impact we expected.  According to a recent Baseball America article:

Across the minors, teams are averaging 1.4 stolen base attempts per game and 1.1 successful steals per game. The success rate across the minors is 77%. The 1.1 successful steals a game nearly matches the 1.11 stolen base attempts across the full-season minors in 2019.

Frankly, I would have expected more.  It also leaves me unsure about how to prioritize steals going into next season.  My working assumption is that the calculus will not be much different than it was before -- you can decide to acquire a few anchors or distribute the steals somewhat evenly throughout your team. 

He's probably going to be undervalued now and then overvalued closer to the start of the season.

We all suffer from that amnesia on certain players.  They burn us, we get angry, and then we forget.  Most folks are still a little angry and disappointed.  So if you're looking at drafting an NFBC league now, you can probably get a good deal on Tatis.  But if you're going to draft closer to the start of the season, then that price is likely to go up a bit.  And there's nothing wrong with that.  His value is lower now and it will only go up as he demonstrates improved health and performance.  That said, in a dynasty context, I would be looking to pounce and acquire Tatis.  

Speaking of improved health.

According to the San Diego Union Tribune, he's doing OK:

“He’s hungry to come back and I think he knows he’s got he’s got some doubters out there and some people rightfully so; he knows he made a mistake,” Preller said Thursday. “I think he was excited about the team’s success (in the postseason), but I know he wants to be a big part of it. So I think all of those kind of mixed emotions from his standpoint. He’s had a good last couple of months in terms of, you know, just owning up to the mistakes. Having the (shoulder) surgery is a good step. He’s been diligent so far in his rehab. I think he’s as excited as anybody to come back and he’s got a lot to prove. I think that’s kind of in the mindset I get from him.”

On the one hand, this all feels like good news.  On the other hand, we actually don't know much.  I do take Preller at his word here, but what do we really know about his rehab in the Dominican Republic?  I believe the narrative that Tatis has something to prove, but we're going to need to see it to believe it and pay the premium.

What's more interesting is position flexibility.

 Another nugget from the general managers meetings is that the Padres plan on using Tatis at more positions.  Preller acknowledged that the Padres are likely to try him out a few positions, though they were understandably coy about the exact parameters.  I'm not actually sure what these others positions would be, besides outfield, short stop, and possibly second base.  In a world where Tatis is healthy enough to actually play these positions, this could be a boon for fantasy players because of his roster flexibility.  The ability to deploy Tatis at multiple positions would be a cheat code, no doubt.  That said, I have my doubts.  Surgeries are routine and common in professional sports, but it's rarely the case that it's a 1 for 1 improvement for the player -- translation: getting back to 100% is not guaranteed and, if anything, it takes a lot longer to get to that number than we all think.  So when I hear "roster flexibility" coming from the Padres, I think that means they plan on using him in positions that will put the least amount of stress on that shoulder.  


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