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Fantasy Football: What Went Wrong and Musings on Wide Receiver Value Relative to Quarterbacks

I am usually pretty competitive in my fantasy football leagues, but there have been a few leagues where the results have been far more disappointing.  One of the reasons for that is because I allowed myself to get caught up in the hype of certain players -- players that were expected to "take off" and "take over."  I let myself get swept away with the Twitter masses, as we all flocked to an inevitable fantasy football death.  

It took me a few weeks of the season to realize what had gone wrong, but boy, when I figured it out, I felt like such a noob.  Let's dive in, diagnose what happened, and see what options we have to get out of it.

My mistake:  I targeted highly-talented receivers ... with ambiguous or questionable quarterback play.

As I have learned this season, there is only so much a receiver can do to overcome his team's overall circumstances and context.  As we know by now, quarterback play this season has been generally down.  We have a few elite quarterbacks and then a glob of reasonably talented and underperforming passers that have yet to really support offenses in the way we expected.  I would even include Davis Mills in that conversation because Brandin Cooks was downright lethal last year and now, not so much.

Case Study #1:  DJ Moore

DJ Moore gets attention for being one of the most talented receivers in the league.  He's incredibly talented, but not talented enough to overcome PJ Walker.  If you have managed to have a winning record while rostering DJ Moore, congratulations.  You likely drafted him with high hopes, like the rest of us.  The Twitter masses were hyped up and the fantasy football industry was seemingly all in on DJ Moore.  That proved to be quite the mistake.  I even traded DK Metcalf away in a league to get DJ Moore, early on in the season, when it looked like DJ's quarterback situation would be better than DK's (oh, how wrong I was).  DJ Moore has a good target share, but in a low passing volume offense, that target share is quite meaningless.  Give me a player with a lower target share in a higher passing volume offense.

Is there hope?  No.

Should I trade him?  No, I would hold.  Wait for a blow-up game because his value is at a rock-bottom right now.  

If you were to try and trade him... I would target Chris Godwin.  Godwin is only getting healthier and there's reason to believe that the Buccaneers offense will improve.  Another idea is to pursue Amon-Ra St. Brown (though you may have to package some things together).  Yet another idea is to target D'Andre Swift, who's mired by negative news about his health.  Just take the risk.

Case Study #2:  Courtland Sutton

Sutton's career has been mired by fits, starts, and potholes -- one after another.  

When Denver traded for Russell Wilson, we all rejoiced and expected big things from the big target.  Sutton, after all, had proven pretty usable in fantasy football in spite of relatively poor quarterback play.  The results this year have been almost worse than they were with Teddy Bridgewater.  

Armchair analysts across the industry have attempted to diagnose what's wrong with the Broncos offense.  Is it Russell Wilson?  Is it his injuries?  Is it the coaching?  There are as many theories as there are jokes about Russell Wilson's Dangerwich sandwich.  

Is there hope?  Yes.

Should I trade him?  No, I would hold.  I think better days are ahead.

If you were to try and trade him... I would frankly aim high.  Some folks really like Juju Smith-Schuster right now, but I personally have reservations.

Case Study #3:  Kyle Pitts

This one hurts the most and it's mostly because we all fell into the trap of thinking we were grabbing the next Travis Kelce.  As it turns out, and as I now believe, Kelce's value is highly tethered to his offensive context -- a high volume, efficient passing offense that builds a game plan based on getting Kelce the ball.  That is not the Atlanta Falcons, nor is it Kyle Pitts.

Big mistake.

Is there hope?  No, even with a quarterback change, this offense stinks.

Should I trade him?  Someone believes in him and your job is to find out who does.  Find that person who still remembers the pre-season helium surrounding Pitts.  Once you do, pounce.

If you were to try and trade him... I would not even bother trying to trade for a tight end.  Trade for an underperforming running back like James Conner.  Get creative.

Moral of the story:  During next year's draft, I will remember to be a lot more reluctant about following the hype of receivers that have questionable quarterback circumstances.  It proved to be the big mistake of my season and one that has been rather impossible to dig out of - you're stuck playing a guy with a capped ceiling, a low floor, and someone that often gets benched for the waiver-wire flavor of the week.

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