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Fantasy Baseball & Free Agency: Early Reactions, part 1

                     

The Major League Baseball winter meetings are officially over and there was one clear winner from free agency: the players.  While I have yet to dig through the official numbers, this year's free agent class appears to be getting longer contracts, by and large, to their predecessors.  I expected neither Trea Turner nor Xander Bogaerts to fetch 11 year contracts, but here we are.  The other winners?  Let's look at it through the perspective of fantasy baseball.  Here's Part 1:

Clear upgrade:  the Phillies lineup
Adding a player of Trea Turner's caliber is a boost to any lineup, but adding an elite leadoff option to an already potent lineup is borderline cheating.  Last season, the Phillies trotted out Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff hitter, followed by Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto.  By no means is that a bad lineup, but there's no speed in the top end of that lineup.  As good as Schwarber may be at getting on base, he also struck out 200 times last year.  Meanwhile, Trea Turner only struck out 131 times and so, just we're looking at the Phillies lineup, collectively, getting a considerable bump up with respect to counting stats.

Hazy, but with a beautiful sunset upgrade:  Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom must have had a ton of options, so it's mildly interesting that he chose the Texas Rangers as his ultimate destination.  I can only guess he had competitive offers, on both years and overall contract value, and that makes his marriage with Texas something worth watching.  To be clear, investing 5 years and $185 million dollars in a player who is past his prime and currently navigating compounding health issues is a risky investment.  However, even in his diminished state -- relatively speaking -- deGrom is still a world-class player, capable of elite production on a consistent and regular basis.  While the general consensus seems to be that deGrom moving to Texas is neutral for his value, I am here to make the case that it's an improvement.  If you look at batting statistics by team, you'll see that the Angels, Mariners, and Athletics were at the absolute bottom (with Detroit) of the rankings.  By comparison, when looking at who the Mets play, only the Marlins were at the bottom of the rankings: the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals were all roughly ranked within the top 10 in the National League.  That's notable and a nice boost for Jacob deGrom.  He's a buy for me in dynasty, especially, if you can find someone who thinks his value just fell off a cliff.

Cloudy and overcast with rays of sun shining through:  the San Diego Padres
I don't know if I like the signing of Xander Bogaerts on this squad.  If anything, it signals to me that they won't have the money to keep all of these players -- Juan Soto included.  It also means San Diego realizes this and is going all in for this upcoming season.  While that's not a terrible strategy, it feels like one of those moves that can cripple a franchise for half a decade or more.  There's little debate on this: Xander Bogaerts is not nearly as valuable as he once was.  His stats, though not significantly, are in a bit of a decline.  That said, all we care about -- for this particular moment -- is the impact of this signing on the upcoming fantasy baseball season.  And for those purposes, I have questions, but I think the Padres lineup will improve overall.  There are still a number of things we don't know.  Will Juan Soto improve?  Will Fernando Tatis return to form or will he struggle to return from shoulder surgery (much in the way Cody Bellinger has)?  Will Xander Bogaerts succeed in a ballpark that's a little less friendly to his right handed bat?  

In the next part, we will look at the Astros signing Jose Abreu, the Cubs signing Cody Bellinger, the Giants signing Mitch Haniger, and the Indians signing Josh Bell.  If you haven't noticed by now, you'll see that I am focusing on hitters almost exclusively.  We will touch on that during part 3 of this segment.  If there's something you want me to cover, you know where to find me.

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