Lesson #1: Aaron Judge was not universally considered a first overall pick and that surprised me.
This one surprised me. As soon as I drafted Judge, the criticism began seeping out of the chat box and it was palpable. I received several "would have, should have" comments, some indicating that Trea Turner or Jose Ramirez would have been better picks. I found no reason to justify either, to be frank. I understand the argument for Jose Ramirez -- but it's based solely on position scarcity. It is not that Jose Ramirez is as good of a hitter as Aaron Judge -- he's not. It's not that he's more durable than Aaron Judge -- he's not (recall how Ramirez really fell apart at the seams in the second half of this past season). It's that Ramirez plays at a position with a steep drop off. But so does Judge. In 2022, Judge accumulated 713.5 fantasy points. Jose Ramirez? 592. And while I love Trea Turner, generally, he doesn't belong as first overall in a points league format. Not only does he play at a deep position, but he only scored 538 points in a loaded Dodgers lineup. I couldn't justify taking either of those players and leaving a hundred fantasy points on the shelf.
Lesson #2: Discounts are available on players that disappointed in 2022 and you should scoop them up.
Ronald Acuna and Mike Trout lasted until the end of the second round. I doubt that discount lasts long. In fact, I had been targeting Acuna only to be "sniped" by Scott White 2 picks before mine. Acuna, of course, had no business lasting that long. Being on the better end of his recovery, Acuna's health should be getting closer to something resembling full strength. While not the best analogy given the different sports and demands, I think Acuna is going to return to form much in the way Saquon Barkley returned to form in his 2nd year back from his ACL injury. Given that most of hitting is generating initially through the legs, I am not surprised at all by Acuna's struggles at the plate. The thing I will be looking for in the Spring is how his mechanics look. I coach little league as a passion and, as I tell my kids, every swing starts with the legs. If Acuna still can't trust his knee, I worry about him overcompensating his swing. Now, as the person that drafted Trout, I was elated. I am not concerned about his back condition. I personally think a lot of players have questionable conditions and MRIs if they were all publicly revealed (see, e.g., Carlos Correa). I'm going to gladly take the discount on Trout here and anywhere else I can get him.
Lesson #3: We don't know where Fernando Tatis belongs yet.
Foolishly, I took Tatis at the beginning of the 3rd round -- making my first three picks Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Fernando Tatis. In a best case scenario, those three players could carry me most of the year. But how often do we get to realize best case scenarios? If anything, Trout and Tatis keep presenting fantasy baseball managers with headaches and I volunteered for what would likely be a headache-inducing season managing their injuries. I don't need to tell you how good Fernando Tatis was, but the one thing we don't know is how good he will be as he recovers from shoulder surgery. I'm not sure where I land yet, in terms of being sunnier on his recovery or more pessimistic that it will take some time for him to return to form. The reason for pessimism? Cody Bellinger. I'm not suggesting they had the same issues, or even the same surgery, but my point is that it's not unheard of for a previously great player to perform poorly coming back from a major surgery. In this mock draft, I fell for the allure of Fernando Tatis and immediately, I regretted that decision.
Lesson #4: I am bringing last year's baggage into this year.
In leagues where I needed saves, I am still a bit stung by last year's efforts to find a closer and I found myself chasing closers even in a points context. That was a mistake, clearly, but it proved I am bringing last season's bias into this season. That's a correctable problem, but it still surprised me because I thought my despair over fantasy football (and guys named DJ Moore and Kyle Pitts) would have fully cleansed last year's bias. Now is as good of a time to figure out what went wrong for you last year and what way you might be -- consciously or subconsciously -- seeking to overcompensate.
Lesson #5: If you're going to wait on pitcher, you better have a serious plan for it.
All in all, the takeaway story from the mock draft is that you can keep drafting hitters as much as you want because the pitchers will be there. That was still surprising in a points context, given how many points pitchers can produce for your team. I really wanted to see how many hitters I could take before biting on the first pitcher and as it turns out, I waited until pick 97 to take my first starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert. From there, I feasted on a stew of solid pitchers: Peralta, Bassitt, Sale, and Greene. Frankly, I was thrilled. However, again, my sunny-side bias is showing again. This is, again, a best-case scenario. I'm banking on Gilbert improving on last year, Bassitt succeeding in a tougher division, Peralta staying healthy, Sale being healthy, and Greene improving on his rookie season. So, in some respects, yes, the value was there, but they all came with a moderate risk profile. My takeaway here was that I might zag a little in my next points draft -- the pitchers were there earlier and at a tremendous value relative to previous years. (Full disclosure, I understand the tendency to chase hitters given the uncertainty with the baseballs).
Lesson #6: Position scarcity is evolving, but will always be a thing.
Every year, I fall into a trap wondering whether position scarcity is actually a thing. I say that, mostly, because I have had success finding waiver wire gems throughout the season (last year, guys like Oscar Gonzalez and Jake Fraley really carried me when studs like Luis Robert and Byron Buxton were on my bench).
This mock draft revealed, and further reinforced, that some positions get really scary, such as outfield. Whether you believe in the concept of position scarcity or not, it's just a fact that some positions are deeper than others (see shortstop, as an example). For that reason, I came into the draft determined to get outfield... and because of that commitment, I left with Judge, Trout, and Harris at outfield. However, I don't see a scenario where you can successfully target each of the scarce positions and somehow feel good about your entire lineup. Thus, while I built a strong outfield, my infield has a ton of question marks. At first base, I left with CJ Cron; second base, Andres Gimenez; and third base, Jose Miranda. To be clear, I am high on all of those guys, but let's be clear -- I am clearly banking on the "high end" of the bell curve, hoping for the most optimistic outcomes possible.
This mock draft revealed, and further reinforced, that some positions get really scary, such as outfield. Whether you believe in the concept of position scarcity or not, it's just a fact that some positions are deeper than others (see shortstop, as an example). For that reason, I came into the draft determined to get outfield... and because of that commitment, I left with Judge, Trout, and Harris at outfield. However, I don't see a scenario where you can successfully target each of the scarce positions and somehow feel good about your entire lineup. Thus, while I built a strong outfield, my infield has a ton of question marks. At first base, I left with CJ Cron; second base, Andres Gimenez; and third base, Jose Miranda. To be clear, I am high on all of those guys, but let's be clear -- I am clearly banking on the "high end" of the bell curve, hoping for the most optimistic outcomes possible.
Lesson #7: Early drafting is a necessary prerequisite to successful drafting when it matters.
Admittedly, being in a draft with experts is a daunting experience. I have my own personal strategy, one I am continuing to refine and develop, but I wasn't sure if it was time to test that strategy against the experts. I went in with the plan to draft elite hitters and, generally, let the value fall to me. Mostly speaking, it worked. But it also proved I didn't have a good plan for position drop-offs. Mock drafting is an excellent way to sharpen your skills, raise awareness about your weaknesses, and force you to develop a plan to address those weaknesses. In subsequently articles, we'll talk about the critical tiers for outfield, second base, and third-base -- along with late-round targets should your best laid plan falls apart.
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