Fantasy Baseball: Which prospects to target in re-draft leagues

Anecdotally, last season was one of the more memorable fantasy baseball seasons.  We had, of course, the controversy surrounding the humidors, the construction of the baseball, and "sticky stuff."  The three of those factors alone made it even more challenging than usual to value players given the relatively unknown and uncertain playing environments.

Last year was also quite memorable because of the number of high-end prospects that received legitimate and significant playing time.  Throughout the year, I found myself having to make complicated lineup and roster decisions because I was betting on when certain prospects would get called up (and let's face it, whenever you can add top prospects like Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, you should probably just go for it).  I expect this year to be similar, but one major difference between this year and last year is that we now know top prospects will be making their way onto the major league rosters.  Because of that, I expect the draft price for these prospects to rise considerably.  Before we get into that, however, I think we need to take a step back for a moment to figure out how we got here and what the context is for prospects going forward.

Thanks to the negotiating efforts leading up to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, there is an incentive now to play your top prospects as opposed to manipulating their service time to game, or gain, a longer contract through the process.  It's called the "New Prospect Promotion Incentive" and that incentive will grant clubs a draft pick if they place a top prospect on their Opening Day roster.  What does a top prospect mean?  In order for a prospect to qualify for this incentive, the prospect must: (1) have his rookie status intact (e.g., having less than 60 days of service time) and (2) be listed on two of the following "top-100" lists for prospects:  MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN.  It's for this reason that we saw prospects take over the game last year, including Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Shane Baz, Reid Detmers, Bryson Stott, and others.  

With that context, we know that top prospects are going to be a fixture in fantasy baseball lineups prospectively.  To be clear, it's not that the risk associated with top prospects has somehow faded.  If you've been playing fantasy baseball recently, you've probably been lulled into considering how players like Jarred Kelenic and Jo Adell fit on your rosters.  Regardless of whether you think there is potential for them to redeem their early woes, it doesn't matter - they were top prospects, they failed to live up to their billing, and they present the "floor" when debating not just which prospects to target but how much to pay for them (we all know the ceiling, at least recently, as Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt presented the absolute best case for prospect call-ups).  Yes, I just italicized, and emphasized, that absolute best case scenario because I am reminding myself that the bell curve is a real thing and that not every prospect is going to hit.  

With that relatively gloomy backdrop, here are the prospects I am targeting and a few that I am not.

• Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles:  This one is pretty obvious, no?  Regardless of whether you thought he was the top prospect, he was, at best, the highest ranked and at worst, the second ranked.  I wouldn't even bother with the case against Gunnar; everything I saw in his first taste of the major leagues was borderline ridiculous.  He trimmed his strikeout rate to 12.1%.  He also carried a .788 OPS in this first season.  And notably, he happens to play at a position of scarcity.  The ranks at third base are pretty thin, which is partially what is driving up his value.  The case against him?  I know I said I wouldn't try and make it, but if you had to find a knock it's his home ballpark.  If you're looking for home runs from him, I wouldn't count on it.  But because of his speed profile, I do expect extra-base hits and thus, solid slugging numbers.  Fantasy Pros has his ADP at 92.  I've seen it quite higher in a number of NFBC formats, but the value is about right as Wander Franco is slotted in around 88.  So, yes, I am paying up for Gunnar, but no, not above cost.
• Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks:  His first taste of major league action was neither outstanding nor awful.  He finished the 2022 campaign with 104 plate appearances, an average of .260 and an OPS of .830.  Oddly, he only stole 2 bases.  During his 2022 minor league campaign, Corbin amassed 24 home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an OPS of 1.035.  It's hard not to get giddy about those numbers.  I personally think some of the "die-hards" will draft Carroll a little higher than he needs to be drafted, but his performance last season might dampen some of the once-mighty hopes that he would light the league in fire.  His current ADP on Fantasy Pros is 81, which, right off the bat, seems about right, but not when you think about Gunnar being around 92.  I would take Gunnar not only for his on-base skills, but his lineup context is better.  Notably, which outfielders are falling after Corbin?  Bryan Reynolds at 88 and Byron Buxton at 89 are two that stick out.  I get the hype on prospects, but I think I'd rather roster Reynolds and Buxton.  Both have proven that they can actually do it and, while I understand the many concerns with Buxton, I am still a believer that his upside is the type that can win you your league. 
• Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox:  It's pretty easy to discuss prospects when names like Henderson and Carroll are universally considered top 100 players overall.  However, what about Triston Casas?  Does he deserve the same breath, and air space, as other highly regarded prospects?  With a Fantasy Pros ADP of 220, most of the drafters are saying no.  That might be a mistake, however.  In all likelihood, he is being devalued based on his early struggles.  What did I see that makes me interested?  He finished the season -- particularly the last stretch of 2 weeks or so -- quite strong.  He walked more than he struck out.  The power showed up.  The only thing that might get us in trouble?  The Miami Marlins are rumored to be interested in picking up a strong corner infielder like Casas.  If it comes to fruition, I am most likely shying away from Casas.  But for now?  He's a late dart throw, particularly given he plays a position that isn't the strongest.  If I miss out on first basemen, I am putting my eggs in the Casas basket.
• Miguel Vargas, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers:  As highly touted as he was going into the season, it was nevertheless a bit of a surprise that he did not get more playing time.  Notably, he didn't get playing time despite the less-than-optimal performance from guys like Justin Turner and Max Muncy.  His performance last season also didn't tell us much.  With 47 plate appearances, he had 8 hits, 1 stolen base, and an OBP of .200.  So goes the meme, "Not great, Bob."  However, and as I sought to remind us at the beginning of this exercise, not all top prospects work.  It's telling when a savvy organization like the Dodgers limits the playing time of a top prospect, particularly when it appeared that the team needed a player "like" Vargas.  However, it looks like the Dodgers are going to give Vargas a chance -- they let Justin Turner walk and did not even bother signing someone to take his spot.  Vargas, in his 2022 AAA campaign, his a refreshing .304, with 17 home runs and 82 RBI.  His stats were further buoyed by 16 stolen bases and an OBP of .404.  At third base, I am willing to take the chance on Vargas that he proves serviceable.  At this point, I am buying, but not over-buying.  With an ADP of 279, he is exactly the kind of dart throw you want to make with your late-round picks.

As fun as this exercise was, and I think I want to write about other top prospects that we should be considering -- especially at pitcher.  That said, just for the purposes of completing this particular exercise, I think it's worthwhile to consider top prospects that may not be as interesting.  A sampling:

• Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets:  The Mets have done a lot of things this off-season (and that's an understatement, to be clear).  None of those things indicates to me that the Mets plan on utilizing Alvarez as much as they probably could.  I'm not going to draft someone with ambiguous playing time, particularly when it looks like the Mets have enough guys that can play DH.
• Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks:  I may get shelled for this one, but I don't know what to think about either.  Jameson carried a 6.95 ERA at Triple-A Reno while Nelson carried a 5.43 ERA.  I understand that ballpark context matters, but why again are we investing heavily in pitchers who didn't perform well during their Triple-A stints?  While doing well against the Dodgers and Padres matters, I personally don't think either of those lineups were performing all that well near the end of the year.  For that reason, I am reluctant to overvalue either of these pitchers particularly when you consider Brandon Pfaadt carried a 2.63 ERA at Triple-A Reno.  And yes, you guessed it, Brandon Pfaadt is the one I am targeting, it is not close, and he will be someone we talk about in a subsequent prospect post.