January is a month of new beginnings. Clean slates. Resolutions. The end of one year, the beginning of another. For us, it also marks the end of the fantasy football season and, officially, the beginning of the march to fantasy baseball season.
For some, the grind never stopped, which is why we're here, in January, talking prospects. Going into any new season, my personal opinion is that the veterans have largely solidified their status - in one direction or another. It is the prospects -- the post-hype and the new-hype that disorient and disturb the board more than any other category of players. That's our inquiry for the moment.
Post-hype prospects
I have three post-hype prospects that I am targeting, in particular. They are Michael Busch (Cubs), Kyle Manzardo (Guardians), and Curtis Mead (Rays). Busch is a pretty easy pick, but I suspect his price is going to get too expensive relative to his ADP neighbors. Busch was shipped from the Dodgers to the Cubs, which is only going to boost not just his value, but his price, as well. The team underdogs, ultimately, are Kyle Manzardo and Curtis Mead. Manzardo, the former Ray, and Mead, the current Ray, were "no doubt" stars coming out of the 2022 minor league season. For both players, they struggled in 2023, though for entirely different reasons. Manzardo was confronted with fairly significant personal issues (his mother, in particular, dealing with serious health issues). Mead, meanwhile, just could not stay healthy. Injury after injury, and it's clear he could never quite get right.
If you're looking for a dark horse, I would also consider two Dodgers: Miguel Vargas and Gavin Lux. To be clear, I would not chase either of these players or pay too steep of a price. They both come with significant, and I mean significant, flaws. With Vargas, he was a minor league stat sheet-stuffer, but couldn't come close to fulfilling that promise in his major league debut. I think it's entirely possible that the injury he suffered in spring training zapped his ability to hit for power... in other words, I am not entirely ready to ignore him altogether. Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is a steady, though not prolific player. It's not clear how he will look and perform coming off knee surgery, but he could be one of the benefactors of a better Dodgers lineup.
New-hype prospects
There are so many prospects to choose from, it's almost too difficult to target one over the other. Wyatt Langford, Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews, Jackson Chourio. Who to pursue? If you ask me, outside of the dynasty context: none of them. I am generally reluctant to chase the prospects unless the price is just right. When looking at ADP values, the price for a top prospect can sometimes come at the expense of a solid and steady veteran. That said, some of these prospects have the chance to hit and hit big. If I am guessing, I would be willing to take a chance on Wyatt Langford. In the interest of transparency, I was never a Langford-believer. I thought his ascension was a tad too quick and sudden. I preferred Dylan Crews and his masterful career -- an incredible portfolio of statistics across a glorious 3-year career at LSU. What Langford has done since being drafted, however, significantly surpasses Crews and, in my opinion, Holliday and Chourio. I don't doubt that the latter two will be perennial all stars, but I also think they're just not quite yet ready for solid-to-spectacular fantasy baseball production. The verdict, overall? You may just want to go with the veterans.
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